October reminded us that markets don’t need calm seas to make progress. Despite headlines about a government shutdown, renewed trade tensions, and another rate cut from the Federal Reserve, investors who stayed disciplined were rewarded with continued gains.
It was a month that showed how resilience often hides in plain sight. Even when the news sounded bad, markets quietly moved higher. Another example of why reacting to every headline usually hurts more than it helps.
| MTD% | YTD% | |
| NASDAQ | +4.70% | +22.86% |
| S&P 500 | +2.34% | +17.52% |
| Russell 2000 | +1.81% | +12.39% |
| MSCI World ex-USA*** | +2.04% | +29.22% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | +4.19% | +33.59% |
| Bloomberg U.S. Agg Bond | +0.62% | +6.80% |
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Dimensional Returns
MTD returns: September 30, 2025–October 31, 2025
YTD returns: December 31, 2024–October 31, 2025
**in US dollars
The government shutdown grabbed attention early in the month, but the market’s response was largely a shrug. Investors have seen this before. In past shutdowns, even the longest ones, the market typically brushed off the noise once funding resumed.
That’s because the economic effects are more of a delay than a loss because spending gets postponed, not erased. It’s a useful reminder that while politics can stir anxiety, it rarely changes the long-term math of investing.
Trade concerns flared up again in October when rare earth metals became the latest source of friction between the U.S. and China. Those elements are critical to everything from electronics to defense systems, and China’s dominant role in production made markets uneasy for a few days.
But as quickly as tensions rose, they eased. Presidents Trump and Xi met before month-end and agreed to roll back certain tariffs, helping stocks recover. It’s a familiar pattern: headline-driven dips that disappear once cooler heads prevail. Investors who sat tight once again came out ahead.
The Social Security Administration announced a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment for 2026—a welcome raise, though a modest one. The average monthly benefit will rise by about $56, which is better than nothing but hardly keeps pace with the rising costs that matter most to retirees.
Healthcare and housing expenses, for example, continue to outpace general inflation. Medical care services rose nearly 4% over the past year, health insurance climbed over 4%, and home insurance increased more than 7%.
That gap reinforces why retirees need more than “safe” investments. Protecting purchasing power over a 25- to 30-year retirement means maintaining a mix of assets that can grow and produce income—even in uncertain markets.
It’s easy to get caught up in the headlines. Every month brings a new reason to worry—elections, rate cuts, global conflicts, or economic forecasts. But markets move based on fundamentals, not fear. Corporate earnings, innovation, and productivity ultimately drive returns.
Those who stayed invested through this year’s noise have seen how discipline pays off. The key isn’t predicting what happens next—it’s preparing for whatever happens next, with a plan that can weather it.
October was another example of resilience. The economy continues to adjust, the Fed continues to balance inflation and growth, and investors continue to navigate uncertainty—just as they always have.
The best approach remains simple: stay diversified, stay disciplined, and stay focused on your plan. Markets will fluctuate. Headlines will shout. But progress belongs to those who keep their footing when others lose theirs.